The hypothetical alliance between Coalición Canaria and Primero Canarias (PRICA) for the 2027 elections reconfigures the electoral map of southern Gran Canaria based on very specific data. Taking as a starting point the local elections of May 2023, where Coalición Canaria obtained 4.829 votes (24,02%) and nearly achieved a majority against the 5.363 votes (26,68%) of the Partido Popular (PP-AV), the integration of the new platform that split from Nueva Canarias introduces a decisive demographic and numerical variable.
An organic pact of this magnitude carries the risk of alienating a sector of the progressive electorate that distanced itself from the traditional banner of Nueva Canarias but would categorically reject a merger with the nationalist center-right. If this critical sector chooses to abstain or redirects its votes toward the nationalist options—bearing in mind that in the July 2023 general elections, the PSOE swept the region with 6.004 votes (30,69%) and the PP garnered 5.466 votes (27,94%)—the anticipated transfer of votes will fall by 30% to 40% compared to the initial expectations of the Local Committees.
If the combined support of the traditional Canarian Coalition absorbs the new municipalist movement, the unified nationalist bloc would easily surpass 7.000 votes in the southern region. This figure represents a direct overtaking of the People's Party's historical electoral low in key municipalities such as San Bartolomé de Tirajana and Mogán, disrupting the balance of power established in the previous legislature.
Finally, in a balanced scenario where the alliance manages to retain an estimated 1.200 to 1.500 floating votes from the former municipal left-wing base, this combined force would become the absolute key to the council. With an electoral threshold set at 5% in the Canary Islands municipalities to access the allocation of council seats using the D'Hondt method, neither the conservative pact nor the socialist alternative could reach the 11 or 13 councilors needed for an absolute majority without the support of this pivotal platform, thus influencing strategic management areas with budgets exceeding 50 million euros annually in the tourist municipalities of the southern islands.
