Brussels has placed Gran Canaria at the center of its calculations in the document sent this summer to European tour operators, which Maspalomas24H has obtained. The official impact assessment report published by the European Commission on July 17, 2026, directly addresses the integration of the air and maritime sectors into the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), detailing the economic and operational consequences for the outermost regions, islands, and remote territories of the Union. The document, linked to legislative files, analyzes the various regulatory options aimed at boosting competitiveness and the cost-effective decarbonization of transport, rigorously evaluating how these measures will affect routes and travel costs to and from strategic locations such as Gran Canaria over the next decade.
The technical analysis confirms that, under the different policy options evaluated, the inclusion of domestic flights within the European emissions pricing system from 2031 onwards will not generate adverse socioeconomic impacts or losses of connectivity for Gran Canaria compared to the baseline scenario. The European Commission projects that passenger demand will maintain an upward trend and that average fares will remain stable or register marginal downward variations, supported by incentives for the deployment of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) such as the one planned by Repsol in Tenerife.
The aviation study's sector-specific breakdown shows that extended support policies for the use of biofuels, under the most ambitious scenarios, will optimize operating costs, resulting in estimated reductions of up to 1,6% in ticket prices for certain low-cost flight categories on key routes such as the Madrid-Gran Canaria corridor. This development mitigates the risk of disproportionate price increases for investors, residents, and high-spending tour operators in the island market.
The Commission report also assesses labor costs and job creation resulting from the energy transition in the refining and green fuel production sector. Using industry data from operational plants and authorized projects in Europe—such as developments in France with a ratio of 1,8 jobs per 100 tons of SAF annually, or initiatives in the UK and Germany with 1,7 and 0,2 jobs respectively per 100 tons produced—the regulatory framework aims to ensure a profitable and competitive industrial transition without eroding the financial margins of transport companies.
In the maritime sector, the EU document examines the impact of extending the EU ETS to smaller vessels, a critical factor for island economies and outermost regions. Around 58% of ferries calling at European ports have a gross tonnage between 400 and 5.000 tons, exposing a large portion of regular shipping services to increased operating costs resulting from emissions pricing. However, the report emphasizes that public service obligations and corresponding exemptions for outermost regions and small islands help mitigate these risks, preventing direct increases in ticket prices, although requiring greater public funding to ensure the stability of shipping routes.
Finally, the EU document assesses the prevention of carbon leakage using general equilibrium models such as GEM-E3, projecting that variations in industrial employment will range from -0,56% to 1,76% depending on the regulatory option adopted. Continued offsetting of indirect carbon costs and the promotion of the circular economy—which already represents between 1% and 2% of European GDP and 2,2% of total employment, with the potential to create up to 2.500.000 additional jobs by 2030—strengthen the viability of the green transition. In this way, the European regulatory framework protects the territorial cohesion of Gran Canaria, ensuring that essential connectivity remains safeguarded against changes in EU regulations.
