The studio Reiseanalyse 2023 FOR (independent holiday trends research society) was presented today by Ulf Sonntag, director and expert of Reiseanalyse, a few days before the start of the ITB in Berlin. Below is a summary of German travel behavior in 2022 and expectations for 2023:
2022: “Almost like before the pandemic”
In 2022, Germans made 67 million trips (more than 5 days), only 5% less than in 2019. Therefore, we return to normality before the pandemic. Tourist expenditures, on the other hand, exceed the 8 figure by 2019%, reaching a record figure. Regarding the increase in spending, Ulf Sonntag commented that it is difficult to differentiate between what part corresponds to inflation and which would be attributable to a real increase in spending.
Which destinations welcomed German tourists in 2022? After two years with Germany itself leading the share (2020: 45%; 2021: 37%), in 2022 Mediterranean destinations will slightly surpass Germany (29%) with 27%. Therefore, trips abroad continue to increase and the balance between national and international trips is becoming "normalized."
Amongst the foreign destinations The ranking of the favorites remains unchanged: Spain, Italy and Türkiye. Spain registers values similar to the pre-pandemic. It is striking that Croatia, which in 2021 had entered the TOP5, remains in fifth position and also with a significant increase in share (2019: 2,7%; 2022: 4,0%). In the same way, Türkiye increased its quota to 2022% in 8,0. It is also notable that Egypt enters the ranking of the TOP10 destinations visited by Germans.
With regards to trip organization, in 2022 the booking of organized packages increased significantly (share of 42%), falling slightly below the value of 2019 (45%), which is related to the increase in trips to the Mediterranean. On the other hand, in the reservation channels Online reservations increased (50,7%), which for the first time are above 50% (in 2019 they were 44%), while reservations with personal contact (e.g. travel agency) continue to lose share (2019 :39%; 2022:34%).
With regard to the selected accommodations, we see that hotels and guesthouses are almost recovering their pre-pandemic share (52%; in 2019: 53%), while vacation homes maintain their increase in share (27%; in 2019: 24%), at the same time that the Reiseanalyse detects greater interest among German tourists in booking a home or holiday villa (increase of 10 percentage points between 2017 and 2023).
Aspects of sustainability for the German tourist
For some years now, Reiseanalyse has been analyzing the importance of sustainability for German, as well as its relevance in the reservation process. The share of respondents who affirm that “their holidays should be as environmentally sustainable as possible” has remained at 42% in recent years, while those who favor socially responsible holidays (e.g. . fair working conditions for staff at destination) has increased significantly from 51% in 2019 to 64% in 2023.
However, this sustainable awareness is not reflected in booking behavior, as shown by the low influence of an ecological certificate when choosing accommodation: on trips to the Mediterranean and long distance it is 9%, while on trips to Scandinavia it is of 22%. This difference between statements and actual behavior (“attitude-behavior-gap") had already been pointed out by Reiseanalyse in previous editions.
Outlook 2023: Despite the crises, a good tourist year?
To predict the trips of Germans in 2023, it is important to know their assessment of the global economic situation, where we can see a notable worsening compared to last year: 50% of Germans expect the economy to worsen in the next 12 months, while 41% estimate that it will remain the same. Only 9% expect improvement.
However, for vacation demand it is more important to see the personal sphere of each respondent. In the assessment of your personal financial situation 59% of Germans (in 2022 it was 69%) say that their personal situation will remain the same, 29% that it will worsen and 12% that it will improve. Although this is the worst outlook data of the last decade, it should also be noted that a 71% of the German population has a stable or even improving economic outlook, which should not dampen the optimistic expectations of a good tourist year.
In terms of consumption priorities, travel continues to occupy a very high position for Germans, second only to food.
6 synthesized conclusions from the Reiseanalyse
1) German tourism can be trusted. Materialize your travel plans, if possible.
2) This results in travel behavior in 2022 that is very similar to 2019.
3) By 2023, Germans show positive travel intentions, but in close dependence on personal economic evolution.
4) The various vacation reasons have remained unchanged during the crisis, which has a stabilizing effect on demand.
5) Germans with lower incomes are under greater pressure regarding travel (possibility of having to shorten stays, change destinations, etc.).
6) Strong holiday demand from Germans for the next 12 months remains possible and probable, without failing to take into account the risks of economic developments.
Next week we will continue commenting on the trends, news and conclusions of the ITB 2023 starting on Tuesday.
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