Coalición Canaria is consolidating its position as the main alternative to Marco Aurelio Pérez in San Bartolomé de Tirajana, but has yet to break the electoral ceiling that separates expectations from actual power. This is reflected in a survey commissioned by Mallorcan investors with tourism interests in southern Gran Canaria, to which Maspalomas24H has had access, and conducted by IESPA (Spanish Institute of Socialist Workers' Party) in the Iberian Peninsula. The poll, conducted during the first half of June, midway through the municipal term, indicates that the bloc led by AV-PP (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) remains the leading force in the municipality, albeit with moderate decline, while CC is experiencing its best political moment since bursting onto the local scene. The survey was conducted before the agreement between PSOE and Hablemos Ahora (Let's Talk Now) and before the official resignation of Rosa Ramírez, the current local leader, who has resigned from that position.
Specifically, the study indicates that AV-PP would obtain 33,2% of the votes if elections were held today, which represents a slight loss of support compared to the 2023 municipal elections. Even so, Marco Aurelio Pérez remains the most solid electoral leader, with almost total awareness among residents and an average rating close to notable among voters over 50 and residents of neighborhoods such as San Fernando, El Tablero, and Tunte. The brand continues to carry emotional weight and is perceived as synonymous with order, stability, and experience.
Estimated distribution of councilors (June 2025): AV-PP (Marco Aurelio Pérez), 10 councilors; Coalición Canaria (Alejandro Marichal) 8 councilors; PSOE (Carlos Álamo) 3 councilors, PRICA (Samuel Henríquez); 2 councilors; Hablemos Ahora → 0 councilors. Others / blank / null / unrepresented, 2 councilors distributed indirectly (by D'Hondt law, they favor the large blocs). Political reading of the distribution: The AV-PP + CC bloc would total 18 councilors, a very comfortable absolute majority (the minimum is 13); The left and minorities (PSOE + PRICA) would be left with just 5 councilors; HA would not enter the plenary session because it does not exceed the 5% threshold. CC is just two councilors away from overtaking Marco Aurelio, but without enough allies to lead an alternative.
And Coalición Canaria is experiencing a significant rise, reaching 27,5% in direct vote estimates. Alejandro Marichal emerges as the leader in growth, especially among registered foreign residents, owners of tourist properties, and workers in the hospitality sector with a medium-to-high profile. Marichal, who achieved a more modest result in 2023, is now managing to capitalize on a young, business-oriented vote that opposes the noise generated by municipal policies linked to tourismophobia, the urban abandonment of Playa del Inglés, and the lack of control over the expansion of illegal housing. However, his figure has not yet achieved the popularity or popular recognition enjoyed by Marco Aurelio, although he is emerging as his possible natural successor.
The big loser in this scenario two years from now is the PSOE. Carlos Álamo's voting intentions have plummeted to 13,8%, losing almost a third of his 2023 electoral support. The Socialist leader, currently the island's councilor, appears blurred both at the municipal and island levels, and his local group has failed to restructure its discourse or position itself on the main debates in the municipality, such as mobility, the recovery of Playa del Inglés, or the impact of tourist apartments. Added to this is growing rejection among business groups, who identify this with the period of greatest legal uncertainty for tourism.
The Let's Talk Now project is also failing to take off. With just 4,2% of the vote, the island-based coalition appears to have no chance of influencing majorities, either through political clout or media visibility.
As for PRICA, the party led by former deputy mayor Samuel Henríquez maintains a 6,1% support rate, a stable figure but not enough to influence governance. Henríquez retains some recognition among coastal voters and municipal technical sectors, but his image was severely damaged by his abrupt departure from the government and the subsequent alliance with the PSOE, which enabled Marco Aurelio's return to the mayoralty.
The survey also measures perceptions of possible post-election pacts, and in this regard, highlights the optimism with which a possible agreement between the AV-PP and Coalición Canaria is viewed. According to the business sources who promoted the study, a joint venture between Marco Aurelio Pérez and Alejandro Marichal would be seen as a guarantee of institutional stability and certainty for foreign investment in areas such as Meloneras, Sonnenland, and San Agustín. This type of agreement, they assert, would also help curb the judicialization of local politics and allow for the advancement of urban development and hotel renovation plans that have been stalled for years.
On the other hand, an alternative pact led by CC and supported by PSOE and PRICA does not command a sufficient majority, nor does it inspire confidence among the economic actors surveyed. The lack of harmony between these three forces, combined with their divergent models and the internal weakness of local socialism, makes such a scenario unlikely. The Hablemos Ahora coalition, for its part, is not considered a decisive player at this time.
In short, the survey paints a picture of a changing political landscape, where Coalición Canaria has become a powerful player but has yet to unseat veteran Marco Aurelio Pérez, who remains a symbol of experience and effective management. Two years before the elections, local power is still being contested between two men and two municipal projects: one consolidated and the other on the rise. Everything indicates that the key will not be so much a split, but rather negotiation between the two blocs. A possible "agreed transition" between AV-PP and CC is already part of business predictions and strategic tourism scenarios, which, more than acronyms, demand certainty.
Study technical file
The survey was conducted by IESPA on behalf of an Amsterdam-based political risk analysis firm that provides services to tourism investors with assets in southern Gran Canaria. The survey was carried out between June 1 and 10, 2025, using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) and self-administered online forms, with quota controls based on sex, age, and area of residence. A total of 624 valid interviews were conducted with individuals aged 18 or over registered in the municipality of San Bartolomé de Tirajana, with an estimated margin of error of ±3,9% for a 95% confidence level. The sample was statistically weighted to reflect the population distribution by district and neighborhood (San Fernando, El Tablero, Playa del Inglés, Juan Grande, Aldea Blanca, Castillo del Romeral, Fataga, and Tunte, among others). The questionnaire included questions about direct voting intentions, knowledge and appreciation of local leaders, pact scenarios, and general perceptions of the state of the municipality.
