The news from Berlin is clear, and the echo of that truth resonates loudly in Maspalomas, where the sun is shining but concern is looming. The recovery of German retail trade is a hoax, a mirage that data from the German Retail Association (HDE) is keen to refute. And if German consumers are tightening their belts in their own country, they are even more so when they set foot on our sandy beaches.
Half of German retailers have seen their situation worsen. Customer traffic has fallen for three-quarters of them in the last two years. And what does this mean for Maspalomas? Well, German tourists, who have been a fundamental pillar of our economy for decades, could arrive with tighter wallets, with less desire to splurge on souvenirs, restaurants, or those small purchases that give life to our businesses.
Meanwhile, German industrial production unexpectedly increased again in May. Manufacturing output rose by 1,2% month-on-month, the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden announced on Monday. Meanwhile, the decline in production in April was somewhat steeper than previously reported. The Federal Statistical Office revised the decline to 1,6% from the previous figure of -1,4%.
Germans, by nature, are cautious. They are savers. And if the government in Berlin has told them to tighten their belts, with soaring inflation and rising bills, that intrinsic quality is multiplied. The fear of soaring prices and the imminent war in Ukraine has taken root. The consequence is direct: less money in their pockets to spend, whether in their hometown or on the beach in Maspalomas.
Gran Canaria has seen German tourists among the highest spenders on average per stay, even surpassing Nordic countries and very close to the British. The figure is estimated at almost €1.731 per German guest in 2024. And it's true that in January 2025, the German market, although with fewer arrivals, continued to grow in total spending. But that trend could change. If consumption in their home country contracts, if retailers there are struggling, it's naive to think things will remain the same here.
The tourism sector in Gran Canaria has been optimistic, with an increase in spending per tourist. It has diversified somewhat, yes, but its dependence on the German market remains considerable. Maspalomas, in particular, thrives on this. The shops, the bars, the services. Everything is fueled by this flow of euros.
So, while here we talk about blue flags and festivals that unite music and tourism, behind the scenes, Berlin's numbers remind us that prosperity is fragile. If German customers don't spend their money at home, they won't do so with the same joy in paradise either. It's a warning. A reminder that the economy is a complex network, and that a cold in the heart of Europe can cause pneumonia in our dunes. The forecast of "stagnation" for Canarian tourism in 2025, and a "soft landing" for 2026, already anticipated by some of the major firms, is merely the translation of this reality. Money is saved. And that, in Maspalomas, is felt.
