The Arctic is melting. And with every cubic meter of ice that disappears, an invisible wave advances toward the south of Gran Canaria. It makes no sound, but it drags the future of Maspalomas, its coast, its dunes, and its beaches with it. Geographer Pablo Manzanares of the Autonomous University of Madrid warned this week in a viral post: "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic." The Canary Islands are already paying the price. And in Maspalomas, even more so.
Here you can read this groundbreaking study by geographer Pablo Manzanares, not only of Maspalomas but also of areas like Las Palmas where subsidence due to water would be terrible: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/pablo-manzanares-804b54325_cambioclimaertico-inundaciones-canarias-activity-7350803834639708160-SmQZ?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAAAOPw0kBci6s4jTw3L3Kb5EWqO-vTFSYesg
The tourist jewel of the southern island—with more than 2,5 million overnight stays annually—is on the front lines of the climate crisis. According to studies by the Canary Islands Government and Grafcan, Maspalomas is one of the 140 kilometers of coastline at risk of retreat due to erosion or flooding before 2100. The beaches could recede by up to 30 meters. Some, such as Playa de El Inglés or Maspalomas itself, could partially disappear in the next 50 years, affecting more than 25.000 accommodation spaces and a large part of the local economy.
The sea level in the Canary Islands has risen 19 centimeters since 1927, and almost half of that increase has occurred in the last three decades. This isn't just a matter of future projections. It's already the present. It's already a business at risk. And it's already people living in fear: the dunes are losing their base, the promenade their firmness, and the hotels their shores.
The economic countdown
The cost isn't just environmental. It's tourism. It's social. It's economic. According to a report on the impact of climate change in the Canary Islands, if immediate adaptation measures aren't implemented, coastal retreat could cause annual losses of up to €4,25 million in San Bartolomé de Tirajana, in addition to the forced displacement of between 1.000 and 2.000 residents if the most extreme scenarios occur.
We're not talking about disaster movies or apocalyptic activism. We're talking about hotel rooms, salaries, jobs, municipal taxes, destroyed ZEC zones, submerged heritage, and thousands of people without alternative housing.
The Maspalomas Lighthouse, the symbol of the south, is also at risk. If current patterns continue, it could be less than 15 meters from the shoreline by the second half of the century.
Who defends Maspalomas from the sea?
Meanwhile, neither the Coastal Ministry nor the Government nor the City Council have a specific defense plan for the Maspalomas coastal strip. The PIMA Adapta Costas plan barely mentions pilot projects in El Hierro or Tenerife, but leaves the archipelago's most touristic municipality outside any effective protection line.
The Canary Islands Climate Change Law has been approved, but without clear funding for coastal projects. Nor has a local resilience plan been activated for the urban core of Maspalomas. Neither breakwaters, artificial beaches, nor nature-based solutions have entered the implementation phase.
Climate change is not the future: it's Maspalomas' early exit.
What's happening in the Arctic isn't a problem for polar bears. It's a problem for hotels in Playa del Inglés, for guesthouses in San Fernando, for waiters in El Tablero, for lifeguards in Meloneras, and for pensioners who have chosen to retire by the sun.
