Here, on the shores of paradise, there are no data, only the aftershocks of figures. Analysts' reports, those old prophecies with numbers instead of omens, reach us like the echo of a distant wave. And within them, amidst the sterile language and growth percentages, lies the truth for tourists: that their happiness, ultimately, is a matter of economics, interest rates, and inflation. The Gran Canaria of hoteliers, of those who make a fortune, is an Excel spreadsheet that expands or contracts at the behest of investment banks.
The prophets at Goldman Sachs, with the coldness of someone diagnosing an illness, predict that the United Kingdom's GDP will grow by just 1,2% in 2026. This number, in the language of mortals, signifies a slowdown, a reversal of the momentum of consumption. British joy, the kind that fills the beaches of Maspalomas with noise and all-inclusive dining, is tied to the string of the economy. And the same prophets, those at Goldman Sachs, warn us that the pound will plummet to 1,09 against the euro, a price lower than that of a cocktail of dubious origin. It is the foretold chronicle of a shipwreck: the fall of a currency that will sweep away the purchasing power of tourists, the last link in this chain. The 'soft landing' that sounded so good in the mouths of businesspeople is actually the controlled descent of a balloon that has lost its wealth.
The Germans, for their part, seem to be escaping disaster with their proverbial prudence. The European Union and other economic institutes predict GDP growth of 1,1% for Germany in 2026. It's a modest figure, but at least it doesn't smell like a recession. Inflation, according to the Bundesbank, could fall to 1,5% in 2026, a figure that sounds like a tax haven. German tourists, those who plan and spend with the precision of a Swiss watch, will come to the island with the weight of economic uncertainty in their suitcase, but they will do so with the hope that their economy, unlike Britain's, won't collapse. Their spending is not an act of passion, but of caution, of faith in a system that guarantees that their investment in sunshine and beer won't end in ruin.
In the end, this article isn't about tourists, but about variables. Paradise is the sum of "interest rates," "inflation," and "GDP growth." The hotelier, that new landowner of happiness, no longer sells stays: he sells economic stability in a world of fluctuations. The happiness of tourists, the happiness that fills the beaches, is just another figure on their profit balance sheet, a dividend collected in euros. And the sea, which once belonged to everyone, is now the backdrop for a war of numbers in which, as always, those who make a fortune are those who manage the reports, not those who bathe in it.
Watch analysts explain the German economy in this video. GDP growth is forecast at 1,5% by 2026.
