The growing credit risk in the Maspalomas hotel industry is beginning to raise concerns among investors and operators in southern Gran Canaria. A recent analysis of the tourism sector in southern Gran Canaria by commercial banks established in the south of the island, which Maspalomas24H has had access to, highlights that, although the overall hotel market maintains a projected 6% annual growth until 2029, regional operators dependent on tourism, such as those in Maspalomas, face default rates exceeding 30% in some cases.
The report identifies large international operators with investment spreads of 63 and 92 basis points, respectively, compared to hotels in Gran Canaria that present high risk or B3 ratings. The difference highlights a clear credit bifurcation: scale and geographic diversification are key factors for accessing financing in vulnerable tourism markets.
Rising operating costs are another source of concern. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme has added between €10 and €12 to average airfares starting in January 2025. Added to this is the introduction of new municipal taxes, such as the €0,15 per person per night in Mogán, which increase the cost of accommodation and reduce hotel margins.
Maspalomas hotels also face fierce competition: Morocco plans to build nearly 400 new hotels benefiting from ETS exemptions, while Turkey and Greece offer more attractive prices. Despite record tourist numbers in 2024, operators like Jet2 forecast slower growth for 2025. Protests and anti-tourism sentiment in Tenerife and Gran Canaria also pose reputational risks that could impact tourist perceptions.
On the other hand, Martini.ai, a native credit analytics platform used by lenders, investors, trade finance teams, and risk managers to assess and monitor the financial health of private and public companies, points out that Gran Canaria hotels show negative operating leverage in 2024, with expenses growing faster than revenues, impacting both gross operating profit (GOB) and EBITDA. Some critical metrics: Labor costs: +22,1% since 2019, working hours are down 7,4% since 2019, insurance premiums are up 17,4% in 2024, property tax payments have an increase coefficient of +4,3%, and non-operating expenses are up +2,3% relative to total hotel revenue.
The case of Maspalomas is paradigmatic: despite its strong tourist influx, its almost absolute dependence on the tourism sector creates structural vulnerabilities. The shortage of qualified personnel and pressure on local infrastructure exacerbate credit risk.
Experts recommend investors focus on established and diversified operators and consider real estate-backed instruments to mitigate risk. In an environment where operating and salary costs are putting pressure on margins, efficiency and scale make the difference.
