Tourism data from the end of October, compiled by the Gran Canaria Tourist Board, casts doubt on the optimism with which the hotel sector in southern Gran Canaria was approaching the end of the year. Net bookings, occupancy levels, and the pace of international searches confirm a slowdown that is not offset by the slight increase in airline capacity.
According to the latest reports from Lurmetrika and Mabrian, updated to October 27, 2025, the total number of scheduled airline seats to Gran Canaria is projected to grow by just 0,8% year-on-year for the 2025-2026 winter season, with the UK and Germany being the only two markets maintaining figures similar to last year's. The most noticeable increase occurred in October (+3,67%) and November (+2,2%), but from December onwards the trend reverses, falling to -1,25% in February, a key month for the Nordic peak season.
Despite tour operators' efforts to maintain connectivity, the other side of the coin shows a more worrying deterioration: projected occupancy remains stagnant. Island hotels expect to close the winter with an average occupancy rate of 78%, practically the same as in 2024. The charts show a flattening trend: the peak months—January and February—are even losing momentum, with year-on-year declines of between half a percentage point and one percentage point.
“We have more seats, but less desire to travel,” summarizes a sales manager at a four-star hotel in Playa del Inglés. “German customers are planning more cautiously, and British tourists are starting to look at Turkey and Egypt, where the value for money has become more competitive.”
The digital pulse of flight bookings and searches points in the same direction. In the weeks leading up to October 27, total flight bookings to Gran Canaria registered year-on-year declines of up to 10%, especially from the Nordic markets and the United Kingdom. International searches, a leading indicator of interest, fell by around 20%, while domestic traffic barely managed to remain stable thanks to inter-island routes and the pull of mainland tourists seeking short breaks.
The year-on-year change in net hotel bookings paints an even starker picture: every Monday in October ended with negative figures, reaching declines of -5% compared to the same period in 2024. Only the Spanish market shows a slight last-minute uptick, which, however, is not enough to offset the overall trend. Ultimately, tourism in southern Gran Canaria appears to be reaching a turning point. Accumulated inflation in the main source markets, the strength of the euro against the pound, and the consolidation of competing destinations in the eastern Mediterranean have reduced the sector's room for maneuver.
Added to this is the structural deterioration of some of the non-hotel accommodation—with an average age exceeding 35 years in Playa del Inglés and San Agustín—and the slow implementation of projects under the Modernization, Improvement, and Competitiveness Enhancement Plan (PMM). “There’s no crisis, but there is a loss of momentum,” warn business owners, who are calling for more promotion in secondary markets such as Italy and the Netherlands, the only ones showing stable growth in bookings. Meanwhile, the winter tourist—that fair-skinned traveler who for decades guaranteed the high season in the south—seems to have learned to compare prices from the comfort of their sofa. And this autumn’s charts bear this out: Gran Canaria remains full, but it’s no longer overflowing.
