The holiday rental sector in southern Gran Canaria is showing signs of a severe and alarming contraction that, judging by the October 2025 data, defies the logic of the high season and points to a collapse in business volume, according to official data held by the Gran Canaria Tourist Board. Forecasts for the high season (November 2025 to January 2026) attempt to paint an optimistic picture, projecting that the Average Daily Rate (ADR) will soar to between €160 and over €180 and that total revenue will peak at up to €29 million in December, thanks to premium holiday rates. However, these hopes for future profitability do not mitigate the current crisis reflected in the October data.
The collapse is already underway, as the market is experiencing an incomprehensible and damaging structural contraction in volume and occupancy, forcing a restructuring that calls into question the long-term viability of the mass holiday rental model in southern Gran Canaria. The market has suffered a direct loss of revenue, with total turnover falling from €22,1 million to €21,7 million, representing a decrease of 1.93%. This drop in revenue during the key month that marks the beginning of the European winter reflects a structural problem that, if left unaddressed, jeopardizes the island's ability to be a reliable economic engine for the European Union.
The main evidence of this structural crisis is the physical loss of infrastructure and the resulting collapse in capacity. In just one year, the market has seen a reduction of 264 properties (a decrease of 1.80%) and has lost a total of 1.773 accommodation places (a drop of 3,17%), with total capacity now standing at 54.157 beds. This decline in supply is unusual and suggests that owners are withdrawing their assets from the holiday market, indicating a lack of confidence in the stability of the rules of the game or in long-term profitability.
This scenario of reduced supply is compounded by a clear weakness in demand, as the occupancy rate plummeted from 39,78% to 38,22%, representing a drop of 1.56 percentage points (a decrease of 3.92%). The fact that occupancy is falling despite less available supply is the most compelling evidence that real demand has diminished.
However, amidst this contractionary environment, managers are staunchly defending prices, as the Average Daily Rate (ADR) remained virtually unchanged, going from €149,70 to €149,65 (a negative variation of only -0.03%). This sacrifice of volume to maintain prices, while keeping the Average Stay stable at 5,3 days (a slight increase of 0,95%), is the direct reason for the drop in occupancy, illustrating a rigidity that the market cannot afford.
