The news hit the forecasts of fund managers in southern Gran Canaria on Tuesday like a ton of bricks, and no one wanted to comment. The south of Gran Canaria will be affected by a reduction of almost 20.000 total seats by February 2026, driven by a 9,1% collapse in domestic connectivity and a decline in Nordic markets. The tourism industry faces planning with asymmetrical risks and an extreme dependence on the British market.
If Fitur 2026 takes place at the end of January next year, then by February 2026 capacity to the Spanish mainland will plummet by 9,1% (a loss of 17.385 seats), a clear indication that inter-regional connectivity is declining. This means that, effectively, the loss of capacity to the mainland represents approximately 90% of the total decline in seats to Gran Canaria by February 2026. The island will attend this major tourism showcase forced to justify to the industry a deficit of more than 17.000 seats in its main domestic market, a blow that almost completely negates any international gains.
The figure is alarming because it indicates that the bulk of the problem lies not only in geopolitics or European inflation (which generate the international deficit of -1.934), but also in a strategic decision by Spanish airlines or in weak demand from the domestic market itself, which is massively cutting its operations to the islands. The Spanish mainland alone is primarily responsible for the adjustment. Total air capacity to the Canary Islands will fall by 3,7% in February 2026, but the true epicenter of the tourism risk is not in international markets, but in connectivity with the mainland, which is suffering a historic contraction of 10,5%, equivalent to 54.246 fewer seats in a single month.
This decline—far greater than in any other European market—represents a direct blow to the main flow of domestic visitors, which sustains seasonality, fills the gaps between peak demand periods, and keeps the economy of southern Gran Canaria afloat during off-peak weeks. The loss of seats from Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao, and Valencia not only reduces the total volume of potential visitors but also erodes the destination's price elasticity, increases the cost of travel, and shifts demand toward competing destinations such as Portugal and the Caribbean. In a crucial winter for the sector, the loss of connectivity from the mainland emerges as the beginning of the most serious and structural risk for Canary Islands tourism in 2026.
The planned air capacity for February 2026 at Gran Canaria Airport has triggered alarm bells in the tourism sector. Analysis of the 556.981 total available seats reflects an overall contraction of 3,4%, translating to a loss of 19.319 seats compared to the same month of the previous year. This trend is marked by a significant imbalance that threatens the profitability of the peak season.
International capacity also suffered a slight decline, amounting to -1.934 seats (-0,5%), but the risk lies in the changing composition of source markets. The main strategic concern is the severe contraction in high-spending segments and domestic connectivity. The Nordic markets, vital to the hotel industry's yield, are experiencing a catastrophic drop.
Sweden plummeted by 34,8%, Finland by 12,0%, and Denmark by 11,4%. This contraction was partially offset by growth in specific niche markets. The United Kingdom (10,2%) and, to a lesser extent, Ireland (6,3%) and the Netherlands (2,0%), acted as bulwarks. However, dependence on British traffic became a systemic risk, especially when key markets such as Germany (8,0%), Belgium (9,9%), Italy (6,5%), and Austria (7,0%) were reducing their capacity.
Although volatile markets like France (+68,7%) and Poland (+58,3%) are growing strongly, their total volume is not enough to offset the structural decline. The hotel industry in southern Gran Canaria faces a contracted and highly volatile market scenario by February 2026. The seat shortage is forcing asset managers to revise their volume forecasts downwards and intensify dynamic pricing (ADR) strategies to compensate for the loss of seats with a higher average price per customer, assuming the risk that elastic demand will shift to competing destinations.
