As we approach January 2026, the macroeconomic indicators for the tourism sector in Maspalomas (Gran Canaria) project an image of unprecedented strength in the historical series (2010-2026). After years of post-pandemic reconstruction and logistical adjustments, the island has entered a phase of "vertical acceleration." Analysis of air capacity, passenger flow (AENA), and tourist (FRONTUR) data reveals that the destination has reached a new, significantly higher level than in the previous decade.
With air capacity at historic levels—exceeding 2,5 million seats by the start of 2026—the analysis must necessarily shift from volume to real return per asset. Combining connectivity data with daily spending forecasts for the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 reveals a scenario of "positive inflation" in tourism revenue, driven by a shortage of accommodation supply in the face of overwhelming demand.1. Daily Spending: The Leap to €185.
Following the volatility of the Brexit and pandemic years, the British market is showing a robust recovery, stabilizing regionally at over 700.000-800.000 beds. The German market, a traditional stronghold for Maspalomas, is experiencing a more gradual and technical recovery, moving towards the 400.000-500.000 bed threshold. Although growth is more moderate than in the UK, the quality of tourists staying in traditional establishments (ISTAC) in the islands remains the cornerstone of hotel profitability.
While in the 2018-2022 series the average daily expenditure per tourist ranged in the range of €145-€155, projections for Q1 of 2026 place this figure at €185 (an increase of 19% adjusted for the new price structure and premium services).
Peninsular Segment
Daily spending has stabilized at €140, although with shorter average stays, which increases the property's turnover. The paradox for Maspalomas in 2026 is that, despite having more aircraft than ever before, bed capacity has not grown at the same rate due to moratoriums and the renovation of outdated facilities. This creates a bottleneck effect. An average occupancy rate of 92% is projected for the January-March quarter, and RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) forecasts point to a 12% year-on-year increase.
Five-star and luxury hotels in Meloneras are quoting standard rooms above €450/night for February 2026. Despite record gross revenue, the net margins of operators in Maspalomas face two headwinds: logistical costs:
With 2,5 million airline seats, the success of Q1 2026 won't be measured by passenger numbers, but rather by the ability of Maspalomas' operators to capture the surplus spending of tourists who are already paying premium prices. The connectivity landscape is clear, but the battle for profit margins will be won through operational efficiency versus supply costs. The return on investment through higher prices will more than offset the increase in operating costs.
